📊 美股选股策略 ETF 全景报告

动量 / 价值 / 质量 / 成长 / 低波动 / 红利 / 多因子 / 等权 / 护城河

数据截至:2026-06-18  |  报告生成:2026-06-21 03:27

一、报告导读

本报告从选股策略维度,系统梳理了 9 类主流 ETF:动量、价值、质量、成长、低波动、红利、多因子、等权和护城河。相比单一收益率,我们加入了波动率、最大回撤、夏普比率、Sortino 比率、Calmar 比率、Beta、Alpha、胜率、相关性等多维指标,帮助你更全面地理解不同策略的风险收益特征。

核心发现:近 3 年(2023–2026)在 AI/科技主导的趋势行情中,动量、成长、等权策略表现突出;而红利、低波动策略防御性更强但上涨弹性较弱。多因子策略则试图在各类市场环境中取得平衡。

策略 ETF 清单(共 21 只 + 2 只基准)

策略类型代表 ETF核心逻辑
MomentumMTUM(iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor), SPMO(Invesco S&P 500 Momentum), XMMO(Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum)追涨杀跌,持有近期强势股
ValueVTV(Vanguard Value), VLUE(iShares MSCI USA Value Factor), IVE(iShares S&P 500 Value)买入估值较低的股票
QualityQUAL(iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor), SPHQ(Invesco S&P 500 Quality)优选盈利稳定、财务稳健的公司
GrowthVUG(Vanguard Growth), IWF(iShares Russell 1000 Growth), IWY(iShares Russell Top 200 Growth)持有高成长预期股票
Low VolatilityUSMV(iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor), SPLV(Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility)选择历史波动率低的股票
DividendSCHD(Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity), VYM(Vanguard High Dividend Yield), DGRO(iShares Core Dividend Growth)偏好高股息或股息持续增长公司
Multi-factorLRGF(iShares MSCI USA Multifactor), GSLC(Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity), SPHD(Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility)同时暴露多个因子以分散风险
Equal-weightRSP(Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight)等权配置,降低巨头集中度
MoatMOAT(VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat)投资具备可持续竞争优势的公司

二、多维风险收益指标总览

指标说明:
  • 3年年化 / 总收益:基于月末调整后收盘价,含分红再投资。
  • Sharpe:(年化收益 − 无风险利率)/ 年化波动率,衡量风险调整后收益。
  • Sortino:只惩罚下行波动,更适合评估尾部风险。
  • Calmar:年化收益 / 最大回撤绝对值,衡量回撤恢复效率。
  • Beta/Alpha:相对 SPY 的系统性风险与超额收益。
  • 胜率:近 36 个月中月收益为正的比例。
策略 / ETF 最新价 YTD 1年 3年
年化
3年
总收益
波动率
12M
波动率
36M
Sharpe
36M
Sortino
36M
最大回撤
12M
最大回撤
36M
Calmar
36M
Beta
SPY
Alpha
SPY
胜率
Momentum
SPMO
Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF
$159.90 +34.39% +43.15% +43.02% +192.54% 23.5% 19.2% 2.01 4.54 -7.39% -7.39% 5.82 1.29 +16.58% 69%
MTUM
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
$338.52 +35.51% +41.86% +33.98% +140.48% 22.5% 18.6% 1.59 3.63 -6.13% -7.52% 4.52 1.24 +8.63% 67%
XMMO
Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF
$171.83 +24.32% +34.28% +30.02% +119.80% 12.4% 18.5% 1.38 2.52 -3.18% -15.62% 1.92 1.12 +7.05% 69%
Value
VLUE
iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF
$199.92 +47.37% +80.02% +31.87% +129.32% 23.7% 19.5% 1.41 3.34 -5.29% -9.44% 3.37 1.19 +7.43% 67%
VTV
Vanguard Value ETF
$216.50 +13.98% +24.44% +17.55% +62.43% 9.4% 11.5% 1.13 2.22 -4.81% -8.08% 2.17 0.69 +3.33% 72%
IVE
iShares S&P 500 Value ETF
$226.38 +7.56% +17.77% +14.06% +48.39% 8.6% 12.3% 0.78 1.39 -4.58% -10.20% 1.38 0.79 -2.18% 69%
Quality
SPHQ
Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF
$89.36 +19.52% +26.63% +22.39% +83.34% 12.5% 12.2% 1.47 2.62 -6.75% -6.91% 3.24 0.81 +5.79% 78%
QUAL
iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF
$215.89 +9.12% +19.21% +18.22% +65.24% 11.2% 12.5% 1.11 1.81 -6.17% -8.11% 2.25 0.92 -0.55% 72%
Growth
VUG
Vanguard Growth ETF
$86.98 +7.09% +19.42% +23.21% +87.02% 19.3% 17.4% 1.08 2.33 -12.25% -12.25% 1.89 1.26 -2.54% 61%
IWY
iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF
$288.74 +4.44% +17.56% +22.71% +84.76% 18.1% 16.6% 1.10 2.33 -12.33% -12.33% 1.84 1.17 -1.29% 61%
IWF
iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF
$123.19 +4.29% +16.49% +22.03% +81.71% 17.6% 16.5% 1.06 2.24 -12.02% -12.02% 1.83 1.19 -2.37% 61%
Low Volatility
USMV
iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
$94.24 +0.81% +1.94% +10.05% +33.29% 8.2% 9.5% 0.59 0.98 -4.79% -5.66% 1.78 0.49 +0.01% 64%
SPLV
Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF
$73.09 +3.29% +2.41% +7.39% +23.85% 11.3% 10.8% 0.27 0.45 -6.18% -7.09% 1.04 0.38 -0.47% 61%
Dividend
VYM
Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF
$158.21 +11.57% +21.64% +17.48% +62.15% 9.5% 11.2% 1.16 2.36 -3.92% -8.29% 2.11 0.69 +3.40% 67%
DGRO
iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF
$74.82 +8.76% +19.49% +15.85% +55.50% 8.6% 10.7% 1.06 2.21 -4.56% -8.75% 1.81 0.69 +1.76% 72%
SCHD
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
$31.86 +17.13% +23.66% +13.40% +45.83% 13.0% 13.3% 0.67 1.18 -3.27% -10.95% 1.22 0.58 +1.46% 67%
Multi-factor
LRGF
iShares MSCI USA Multifactor ETF
$75.62 +9.48% +19.31% +20.84% +76.43% 12.2% 13.2% 1.24 2.51 -5.27% -7.97% 2.61 1.00 +0.46% 64%
GSLC
Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF
$141.89 +7.48% +17.80% +18.86% +67.92% 12.3% 13.0% 1.11 2.22 -5.90% -8.18% 2.31 0.99 -1.44% 67%
SPHD
Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF
$49.95 +6.25% +9.66% +10.90% +36.40% 11.2% 12.4% 0.52 0.94 -4.99% -9.63% 1.13 0.49 +0.87% 61%
Equal-weight
RSP
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
$209.96 +10.07% +16.99% +13.65% +46.81% 10.2% 13.2% 0.70 1.28 -5.97% -11.92% 1.15 0.86 -3.95% 64%
Moat
MOAT
VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF
$102.12 -1.39% +10.36% +9.87% +32.62% 12.4% 14.5% 0.37 0.67 -9.57% -13.24% 0.75 0.93 -9.17% 64%
Benchmark
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust
$740.62 +20.71% +34.76% +26.78% +103.76% 20.0% 17.1% 1.30 3.08 -8.01% -10.08% 2.66 1.23 +1.53% 67%
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
$746.74 +10.09% +22.20% +20.47% +74.86% 13.1% 13.1% 1.23 2.58 -5.76% -8.33% 2.46 1.00 -0.00% 67%

三、风险-收益特征解读

3年年化收益最高
SPMO
+43.02%
夏普比率最高
SPMO
2.01
Calmar比率最高
SPMO
5.82
36个月波动率最低
USMV
9.5%
36个月最大回撤最小
USMV
-5.66%
解读:高回报策略(如动量、成长)通常伴随高波动和深回撤;低波动、红利策略牺牲上涨弹性换取下行保护。多因子 ETF(如 LRGF、GSLC)各项指标居中,体现了分散化的效果。

四、各策略 ETF 选股机制详解

以下按策略分类展示每只 ETF 的核心机制。注意:这些 ETF 大多不是每月调仓,调仓频率从季度到年度不等。

Momentum

MTUM — iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF

发行商BlackRock / iShares
跟踪指数MSCI USA Momentum SR Variant Index
费率0.15%
调仓频率Semi-annually (May & November)
投资范围U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks
持仓数量约 ~125
选股信号6M & 12M risk-adjusted momentum (Sharpe-style)
加权方式Market-cap with momentum overlay, sector constraints
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:追涨策略,偏好近期风险调整后动量最强的股票。
主要风险:AI/科技板块回撤时冲击大;半年调仓对市场转向反应偏慢。
Momentum

SPMO — Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF

发行商Invesco
跟踪指数S&P 500 Momentum Index
费率0.13%
调仓频率Semi-annually (March & September)
投资范围S&P 500 constituents
持仓数量约 ~100
选股信号12-month price return ex-most-recent month
加权方式Market-cap + momentum score weighted
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:在标普500内追踪高动量大盘股。
主要风险:集中度随趋势走高;风格切换时回撤可能较深。
Momentum

XMMO — Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF

发行商Invesco
跟踪指数S&P MidCap 400 Momentum Index
费率0.35%
调仓频率Semi-annually (March & September)
投资范围S&P MidCap 400 constituents
持仓数量约 ~80
选股信号12-month price return ex-most-recent month
加权方式Market-cap + momentum score weighted
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:专注中盘高动量股票。
主要风险:中盘股波动更大;流动性相对较弱。
Value

VTV — Vanguard Value ETF

发行商Vanguard
跟踪指数CRSP U.S. Large Cap Value Index
费率0.03%
调仓频率Quarterly
投资范围U.S. large-cap stocks
持仓数量约 ~310–350
选股信号Book/Price, Earnings/Price, Sales/Price, Dividend/Price
加权方式Float-adjusted market-cap weighted
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:以极低费率持有大盘价值股,多指标定义价值。
主要风险:成长风格主导时长期跑输;金融/能源/医疗占比高。
Value

VLUE — iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF

发行商BlackRock / iShares
跟踪指数MSCI USA Enhanced Value Index
费率0.15%
调仓频率Semi-annually (May & November)
投资范围MSCI USA (large/mid-cap)
持仓数量约 ~147
选股信号P/B, Forward P/E, EV/CFO
加权方式Optimized factor-tilt, industry-neutral
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:多指标价值因子+行业中性,降低价值陷阱。
主要风险:价值因子可能长期失效;换手率高于纯市值型。
Value

IVE — iShares S&P 500 Value ETF

发行商BlackRock / iShares
跟踪指数S&P 500 Value Index
费率0.18%
调仓频率Annual reconstitution (Dec) + quarterly reweighting
投资范围S&P 500 constituents
持仓数量约 ~439
选股信号B/P, E/P, S/P plus growth score
加权方式Capped float-adjusted market-cap weighted
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:在标普500内做价值风格暴露。
主要风险:与成长指数存在持仓重叠;Mega-cap 影响仍较大。
Quality

QUAL — iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF

发行商BlackRock / iShares
跟踪指数MSCI USA Sector Neutral Quality Index
费率0.15%
调仓频率Semi-annually (May & November)
投资范围MSCI USA (large/mid-cap)
持仓数量约 ~121
选股信号ROE, Debt/Equity, Earnings Variability
加权方式Sector-neutral quality score × market-cap
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:优选高ROE、低杠杆、盈利稳定的公司,行业中性。
主要风险:质量股可能集中于科技/医疗;半年调仓反应滞后。
Quality

SPHQ — Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF

发行商Invesco
跟踪指数S&P 500 Quality Index
费率0.15% (net)
调仓频率Semi-annually (June & December)
投资范围S&P 500 constituents
持仓数量约 100
选股信号ROE, Accruals Ratio, Financial Leverage
加权方式Quality score × market-cap, optimized constraints
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:在标普500中精选质量评分最高的100只股票。
主要风险:信息技术占比可能较高;换手率约47%。
Growth

VUG — Vanguard Growth ETF

发行商Vanguard
跟踪指数CRSP US Large Cap Growth Index
费率0.04%
调仓频率Quarterly (transitional reconstitution)
投资范围U.S. large-cap stocks
持仓数量约 ~154–166
选股信号EPS growth (long/short-term), sales growth, ROA, investment/assets
加权方式Float-adjusted market-cap weighted
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:低成本获取大盘成长股暴露。
主要风险:估值偏高,对利率敏感;科技集中度高。
Growth

IWF — iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF

发行商BlackRock / iShares
跟踪指数Russell 1000 Growth Index
费率0.18–0.19%
调仓频率Annual (June)
投资范围Russell 1000 (largest 1,000 U.S. stocks)
持仓数量约 ~385–390
选股信号P/B, 2-year EPS growth forecast, 5-year sales growth
加权方式Float-adjusted market-cap weighted
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:覆盖美国大盘成长股全谱系。
主要风险:科技板块约占50%;年度重构集中在6月。
Growth

IWY — iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF

发行商BlackRock / iShares
跟踪指数Russell Top 200 Growth Index
费率0.20%
调仓频率Annual (June)
投资范围Russell Top 200 (200 largest U.S. stocks)
持仓数量约 ~110–116
选股信号P/B, 2-year EPS growth forecast, 5-year sales growth
加权方式Float-adjusted market-cap weighted
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:聚焦超大市值成长股,是大盘成长的头部集中版。
主要风险:前10大持仓占比常超60%; mega-cap 风险最大。
Low Volatility

USMV — iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF

发行商BlackRock / iShares
跟踪指数MSCI USA Minimum Volatility (USD) Index
费率0.15%
调仓频率Quarterly (Feb/May/Aug/Nov) since Aug 2025; prior semi-annual
投资范围MSCI USA (large/mid-cap)
持仓数量约 ~170
选股信号Minimum variance optimization using Barra risk model
加权方式Optimization-based with sector/factor constraints
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:组合层面最小化波动率,同时控制行业和因子偏离。
主要风险:科技股领涨时大幅跑输;优化模型存在模型风险。
Low Volatility

SPLV — Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF

发行商Invesco
跟踪指数S&P 500 Low Volatility Index
费率0.25%
调仓频率Quarterly (effective 3rd Fri of Feb/May/Aug/Nov)
投资范围S&P 500 constituents
持仓数量约 ~100
选股信号252-day realized volatility
加权方式Inverse volatility weighted
分红频率Monthly
投资逻辑:持有标普500中过去一年波动最低的100只股票。
主要风险:行业集中于公用事业/金融/REITs;回顾性指标滞后。
Dividend

SCHD — Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF

发行商Charles Schwab
跟踪指数Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index
费率0.06%
调仓频率Annual reconstitution (March) + quarterly rebalancing
投资范围U.S. dividend-paying stocks ex-REITs/MLPs
持仓数量约 100
选股信号10-year dividend history; combined score: FCF/debt, ROE, yield, 5-yr div growth
加权方式Modified market-cap weighted, 4% stock cap / 25% sector cap
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:“高质量+高股息”双因子,优选现金流稳健的派息公司。
主要风险:价值/防御风格,成长股牛市中可能跑输。
Dividend

VYM — Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF

发行商Vanguard
跟踪指数FTSE High Dividend Yield Index
费率0.06%
调仓频率Semi-annually (March & September)
投资范围FTSE USA large/mid-cap, ex-REITs
持仓数量约 ~400–550
选股信号Forward 12-month dividend yield
加权方式Float-adjusted market-cap weighted
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:低成本、宽覆盖获取高于市场平均的股息收益。
主要风险:行业配置随股息率大幅偏离;利率上行估值承压。
Dividend

DGRO — iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF

发行商BlackRock / iShares
跟踪指数Morningstar US Dividend Growth Index
费率0.08%
调仓频率Annual reconstitution (December) + quarterly rebalancing
投资范围U.S. stocks ex-REITs, all caps
持仓数量约 ~395–420
选股信号5-year dividend growth, payout ratio <=75%, positive earnings forecast; exclude top 10% yielders
加权方式Dividend-weighted, 3% stock cap
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:强调股息增长的可持续性,而非单纯高股息。
主要风险:当前股息率通常低于高股息策略;科技股暴露偏低。
Multi-factor

LRGF — iShares MSCI USA Multifactor ETF

发行商BlackRock / iShares
跟踪指数MSCI USA Diversified Multiple-Factor Index
费率0.20%
调仓频率Semi-annually (May & November)
投资范围U.S. large/mid-cap stocks
持仓数量约 ~120–160
选股信号Value, Quality, Momentum, Low Size
加权方式Multi-factor weighted with sector/size constraints
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:整合价值、质量、动量、规模四因子,平滑单一因子失效。
主要风险:任一因子长期跑输时拖累整体;存在追踪误差。
Multi-factor

GSLC — Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF

发行商Goldman Sachs Asset Management
跟踪指数Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity Index
费率0.09%
调仓频率Quarterly
投资范围U.S. large-cap stocks
持仓数量约 ~400–500
选股信号Value, Momentum, Quality, Low Volatility
加权方式Factor tilting on market-cap base
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:低成本多因子倾斜,持仓分散接近宽基。
主要风险:因子拥挤/失效风险;季度调仓成本。
Multi-factor

SPHD — Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF

发行商Invesco
跟踪指数S&P 500 Low Volatility High Dividend Index
费率0.30%
调仓频率Quarterly
投资范围S&P 500 constituents
持仓数量约 50
选股信号High dividend yield + low 12M realized volatility
加权方式Dividend yield weighted, sector caps
分红频率Monthly
投资逻辑:结合高股息与低波动,防御型蓝筹策略。
主要风险:行业集中;股息陷阱;费率在三只中最高。
Equal-weight

RSP — Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF

发行商Invesco
跟踪指数S&P 500 Equal Weight Index
费率0.20%
调仓频率Quarterly (3rd Friday of Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec)
投资范围S&P 500 constituents
持仓数量约 ~500 (505–510 lines)
选股信号None — equal representation of all S&P 500 stocks
加权方式Equal weight (target 0.20% each)
分红频率Quarterly
投资逻辑:降低科技巨头集中度,天然偏向中小盘和价值。
主要风险:换手率高于市值加权; mega-cap 领涨时跑输。
Moat

MOAT — VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF

发行商VanEck
跟踪指数Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index
费率0.47%
调仓频率Semi-annually staggered (sub-portfolios in Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec)
投资范围Morningstar US Market Index (top 97% market cap)
持仓数量约 40–80 (two 40-stock sub-portfolios)
选股信号Wide moat rating + lowest Price/Fair Value
加权方式Equal weight within sub-portfolios (target 2.5% each)
分红频率Annual
投资逻辑:以合理价格买入具备可持续竞争优势的宽护城河公司。
主要风险:风格风险;护城河评级主观性;持仓集中。

五、最近 12 个月月度收益

说明:最近一个月为部分月份收益(数据截至 2026-06-18),需等月末收盘后才是完整月度收益。
月份MTUMSPMOXMMOVTVVLUEQUALVUGUSMVSPLVSCHDVYMLRGFRSPMOATSPYQQQ
2025-07+0.40%+2.86%+1.39%+0.17%-0.23%+0.71%+3.83%-1.34%-0.26%+0.00%+0.62%+2.18%+1.04%+3.22%+2.30%+2.42%
2025-08+1.01%+0.68%+0.66%+3.49%+5.96%+2.62%+0.76%+1.78%+1.56%+5.36%+3.76%+1.91%+2.72%+1.74%+2.05%+0.95%
2025-09+5.47%+4.10%+3.19%+2.30%+5.06%+3.19%+4.69%+1.32%+0.16%-1.28%+1.88%+3.74%+1.01%+0.63%+3.56%+5.38%
2025-10-0.87%+0.53%+0.58%-0.39%+4.29%+0.93%+4.01%-2.06%-3.72%-2.01%-0.26%+1.49%-0.93%+2.64%+2.38%+4.78%
2025-11-1.56%-1.30%+2.43%+2.54%+2.50%+0.91%-1.61%+2.31%+3.80%+3.14%+3.46%-0.68%+1.92%+1.48%+0.20%-1.56%
2025-12+0.29%-0.42%-0.45%+0.79%+2.90%+0.58%-0.51%-0.82%-2.21%+0.44%-0.67%+0.08%+0.41%+1.67%+0.08%-0.67%
2026-01+2.23%+0.46%+1.31%+4.59%+7.64%+1.91%-1.29%+0.88%+3.31%+8.71%+4.49%+0.30%+3.40%+1.15%+1.47%+1.23%
2026-02-1.15%-0.33%+6.96%+3.76%+2.45%+1.21%-4.29%+2.97%+5.28%+6.54%+3.39%-0.78%+3.48%+2.08%-0.86%-2.34%
2026-03-5.04%-5.90%-3.18%-4.81%-5.29%-6.17%-5.12%-4.79%-5.33%-2.61%-3.92%-4.24%-5.97%-9.57%-4.94%-4.84%
2026-04+18.33%+19.34%+10.21%+5.39%+17.50%+8.05%+14.25%+2.05%+2.03%+4.53%+6.14%+9.03%+6.00%+3.80%+10.51%+15.69%
2026-05+11.21%+12.56%+5.64%+2.45%+18.59%+3.98%+7.73%+2.07%-2.88%+1.34%+1.27%+6.27%+2.65%+3.34%+5.26%+10.57%
2026-06 (partial)+7.31%+6.18%+1.77%+2.19%+1.26%+0.36%-2.92%-2.14%+1.22%-1.97%+0.00%-0.86%+0.54%-1.54%-1.03%+0.31%

六、最近 4 个季度收益

季度MTUMSPMOXMMOVTVVLUEQUALVUGUSMVSPLVSCHDVYMLRGFRSPMOATSPYQQQ
2025 Q3+6.97%+7.81%+5.31%+6.05%+11.06%+6.65%+9.52%+1.75%+1.45%+4.01%+6.36%+8.03%+4.83%+5.67%+8.12%+8.96%
2025 Q4-2.13%-1.20%+2.56%+2.94%+9.99%+2.43%+1.82%-0.62%-2.26%+1.50%+2.50%+0.88%+1.38%+5.91%+2.67%+2.45%
2026 Q1-4.04%-5.78%+4.92%+3.30%+4.44%-3.22%-10.37%-1.10%+2.97%+12.79%+3.80%-4.69%+0.62%-6.62%-4.37%-5.93%
2026 Q2 (partial)+41.21%+42.63%+18.49%+10.35%+41.10%+12.75%+19.48%+1.94%+0.30%+3.85%+7.49%+14.87%+9.40%+5.60%+15.12%+28.32%

滚动 3 个月收益(最近 4 期)

以每个月末为终点,往前滚动 3 个月计算的总收益。

截止月份MTUMSPMOXMMOVTVVLUEQUALVUGUSMVSPLVSCHDVYMLRGFRSPMOATSPYQQQ
2026-03-4.04%-5.78%+4.92%+3.30%+4.44%-3.22%-10.37%-1.10%+2.97%+12.79%+3.80%-4.69%+0.62%-6.62%-4.37%-5.93%
2026-04+11.08%+11.93%+14.14%+4.09%+14.01%+2.60%+3.74%+0.04%+1.70%+8.45%+5.44%+3.60%+3.15%-4.18%+4.14%+7.51%
2026-05+24.96%+26.40%+12.72%+2.78%+31.96%+5.41%+16.78%-0.83%-6.18%+3.16%+3.27%+10.95%+2.32%-3.00%+10.58%+21.73%
2026-06 (partial)+41.21%+42.63%+18.49%+10.35%+41.10%+12.75%+19.48%+1.94%+0.30%+3.85%+7.49%+14.87%+9.40%+5.60%+15.12%+28.32%

七、相关性矩阵(近 36 个月月度收益)

数值越接近 1,表示两只 ETF 走势越同步;越接近 0 或负数,表示分散化效果越好。

DGROGSLCIVEIWFIWYLRGFMOATMTUMQQQQUALRSPSCHDSPHDSPHQSPLVSPMOSPYUSMVVLUEVTVVUGVYMXMMO
DGRO1.000.860.980.630.590.840.900.650.640.880.980.870.860.850.800.620.840.870.770.980.620.980.79
GSLC0.861.000.870.930.910.990.850.870.920.970.870.590.540.880.510.870.990.720.780.810.930.820.82
IVE0.980.871.000.640.600.850.910.640.650.870.970.850.840.810.770.610.850.860.780.960.640.960.79
IWF0.630.930.641.001.000.930.700.840.970.870.650.300.250.740.210.870.940.480.640.551.000.580.68
IWY0.590.910.601.001.000.910.660.820.960.850.610.260.210.720.170.860.920.450.620.500.990.530.63
LRGF0.840.990.850.930.911.000.840.870.920.960.860.570.520.870.460.880.990.700.790.790.930.800.83
MOAT0.900.850.910.700.660.841.000.600.680.850.930.710.700.800.610.610.840.750.720.870.680.860.76
MTUM0.650.870.640.840.820.870.601.000.890.860.680.360.310.850.350.970.870.530.740.640.860.610.75
QQQ0.640.920.650.970.960.920.680.891.000.870.670.340.250.790.200.910.940.450.760.580.970.600.67
QUAL0.880.970.870.870.850.960.850.860.871.000.880.640.610.930.580.860.960.770.760.840.870.830.82
RSP0.980.870.970.650.610.860.930.680.670.881.000.840.830.860.760.650.850.840.780.970.650.960.84
SCHD0.870.590.850.300.260.570.710.360.340.640.841.000.900.640.790.330.570.770.670.880.300.900.60
SPHD0.860.540.840.250.210.520.700.310.250.610.830.901.000.620.920.260.520.830.520.860.240.860.52
SPHQ0.850.880.810.740.720.870.800.850.790.930.860.640.621.000.620.840.870.740.750.850.750.810.80
SPLV0.800.510.770.210.170.460.610.350.200.580.760.790.920.621.000.280.460.870.410.810.210.790.52
SPMO0.620.870.610.870.860.880.610.970.910.860.650.330.260.840.281.000.880.500.720.600.890.580.74
SPY0.840.990.850.940.920.990.840.870.940.960.850.570.520.870.460.881.000.670.800.790.940.800.79
USMV0.870.720.860.480.450.700.750.530.450.770.840.770.830.740.870.500.671.000.600.860.480.830.65
VLUE0.770.780.780.640.620.790.720.740.760.760.780.670.520.750.410.720.800.601.000.790.660.770.68
VTV0.980.810.960.550.500.790.870.640.580.840.970.880.860.850.810.600.790.860.791.000.540.980.79
VUG0.620.930.641.000.990.930.680.860.970.870.650.300.240.750.210.890.940.480.660.541.000.570.67
VYM0.980.820.960.580.530.800.860.610.600.830.960.900.860.810.790.580.800.830.770.980.571.000.78
XMMO0.790.820.790.680.630.830.760.750.670.820.840.600.520.800.520.740.790.650.680.790.670.781.00

八、如何把这些 ETF 组合使用?

8.1 核心-卫星配置思路

仓位角色建议占比可选 ETF作用
核心仓位50%–70%SPY / VOO / VTI / QQQ获取市场 beta,降低单一因子失效风险
因子卫星20%–30%MTUM / SPMO / VUG / QUAL / RSP在趋势/成长/质量行情中超额收益
防御卫星10%–20%USMV / SPLV / SCHD / VYM降低组合波动,提供股息现金流
策略增强0%–10%MOAT / LRGF / GSLC另类选股逻辑,增加分散化

8.2 不同市场环境下的策略选择

市场环境相对占优策略相对劣势策略
科技/成长主导的牛市动量、成长、等权价值、低波动、红利
经济复苏、价值回归价值、红利、等权质量(若估值过高)、低波动
高波动、熊市下跌低波动、质量、红利动量、成长、等权
利率上行周期价值、质量高股息(公用事业/REITs)、成长
趋势明确、风格延续动量等权、多因子

8.3 定投建议

可以定投,但要注意节奏和仓位:
  • 宽基 ETF(SPY、QQQ)最适合无脑定投,作为核心仓位。
  • 因子 ETF(动量、价值、质量等)适合做卫星定投,建议占权益资产的 10%–30%。
  • 不要单押一个因子,至少配置 2–3 个负相关或低相关的因子(如价值+质量+低波动)。
  • 动量 ETF 由于半年调仓、追涨特性,在风格切换期回撤较大,定投可平滑入场成本,但不宜满仓。

九、数据口径与免责声明